Portugal grapples with rising counterfeit euro surge, quality dips

Lisbon – Portuguese authorities are facing a burgeoning wave of counterfeit euros, despite increasingly effective seizure efforts. While the number of fakes being intercepted before they hit circulation signals a strengthening defense, the quality of the currency being produced is demonstrably declining, raising concerns about potential losses in everyday transactions.

The numbers tell a stark tale

The RASI (Serviço de Análise e Inspeção de Recursos da Polícia Judiciária) reports a dramatic 296% increase in seized 5 euro notes in 2025 compared to 2024 – a jump from 352 to 1393. The sheer volume of these counterfeit bills is alarming, though the data also reveals a nuanced picture. Overall, 8,839 counterfeit banknotes were seized last year, a 20% decrease from 2024. The apparent contradiction—more seizures, fewer notes seized—suggests authorities are catching the forgeries earlier in their illicit journey, before they can fully infiltrate the economy.

But what’s truly unsettling is the deteriorating quality. These aren't sophisticated imitations; officials describe obvious flaws that make them relatively easy to detect. The Bank of Portugal echoes this assessment, emphasizing the difficulty of replicating the intricate security features embedded in genuine banknotes. This points to a shift in criminal strategy rather than a decline in overall criminal capability: a calculated risk involving lower-quality currency to minimize losses in case of apprehension.

China's shadow looms large

The origin of these counterfeits is increasingly clear. According to RASI, the vast majority of these fraudulent notes originate in China and are smuggled into Portugal via postal services. This method allows criminal networks to distribute smaller quantities of currency, a tactic designed to reduce potential losses if a shipment is intercepted. It’s a calculated gamble – spreading the risk over numerous, smaller packages. Lo que nadie cuenta es la facilidad con la que estos paquetes pueden pasar desapercibidos en un volumen postal masivo.

The risk, however, lies in the mundane. In fast-paced transactions—a quick purchase at a market, a bus fare—verification is often cursory. It’s in these moments that a substandard counterfeit can slip through unnoticed, potentially fueling a wider problem.

Spotting the fake: a consumer's guide

While the actual number of counterfeits in circulation remains low, authorities are urging vigilance. The key, they say, is to engage all senses. “Touch, observe, and tilt,” advises the Bank of Portugal. Feel the textures—genuine euro notes have a distinct raised print. Examine the security features—holograms, watermarks, and microprinting. A vigilant consumer is the first line of defense.

The data paints a troubling picture: a rise in counterfeit activity, a shift toward lower-quality bills, and reliance on covert shipping routes. The Portuguese authorities are fighting a rising tide, but the onus is on citizens to remain alert. The ease with which criminals are now importing these fakes underscores a broader vulnerability – a reminder that even in a modern, technologically advanced economy, the simple act of exchanging money carries a growing risk.