Ceasefire opens window for global fuel supplies, but uncertainty persists

A fragile overnight ceasefire between the United States and Iran has opened a window for global fuel supplies to partially resume, but uncertainty surrounding the terms of the agreement has left shippers and EU policymakers in limbo.

Cautious optimism amid ongoing disruption

Despite a possible pause in hostilities, EU energy spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen warned on Wednesday that the crisis affecting energy prices 'will not be short-lived,' with disruption likely to persist for years.

Shippers remain cautious, with major operators waiting for clearer security assurances before resuming routes. Maersk, the world's largest container shipping company, stated the agreement does not yet provide 'full maritime certainty,' while German carrier Hapag-Lloyd warned that global shipping networks could take up to two months to normalize even if the ceasefire holds.

Live satellite imagery shows a limited number of vessels attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint. The Strait, through which nearly 40% of refined petroleum products pass, has been the site of Iran's de facto closure since early March.

Iran's foreign minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, described the ceasefire as allowing 'safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for a period of two weeks, via coordination with Iran's armed forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.' This conditional wording suggests Tehran may continue enforcing an informal 'tollbooth' system, which has already caused a significant decline in oil and liquefied gas shipments.